Farmers are reporting alarming fuel shortages and rationing, jeopardising critical agricultural operations at a pivotal time in the production cycle.
Image: Supplied

FARMERS across multiple regions have reported constrained fuel supply and increasing instances of rationing, with retailers limiting volumes due to uncertainty around replenishment.

These constraints are beginning to affect normal farming and agribusiness operations at a critical time in the production cycle, AgriSA and Agbiz said.

The organisations called on the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy to urgently consider a temporary adjustment to the current fuel pricing mechanism in response to emerging supply constraints in rural areas.

This followed the completion of a joint survey conducted among farmers and fuel retailers servicing the agricultural sector.

“Across multiple regions, respondents reported constrained supply and increasing instances of rationing.”

AgriSA and Agbiz proposed an immediate, out-of-cycle fuel price adjustment to better reflect current market conditions and the introduction of temporary more regular reviews, instead of the standard monthly adjustment, for the duration of the current energy price volatility.

“These measures are not intended to increase costs to the sector, but rather to ensure that pricing reflects underlying conditions more accurately, thereby reducing incentives for panic buying or supply withholding,” the organisations said.

Fuel represents a significant input cost in agriculture, typically accounting for between 12% and 18% of production costs. Any disruption in availability, particularly during peak planting, harvesting, or transport periods, poses a direct risk to food production, supply chains, and ultimately food security, AgriSA and Agbiz said.

Premier Alan Winde has also written to the Presidency and office of the Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources to raise his concerns over what appears to be the increased hoarding of fuel stock by some suppliers.

“This is unethical. I implore suppliers to continue providing fuel for their clients. Withholding supply places the economy and livelihoods, especially in the province’s agriculture sector, which accounts for over 50% of the entire country’s exports, at great risk,” Winde said.

The provincial government said it is also aware of isolated incidents where filling stations in parts of the province are running short of fuel supply or have depleted their stocks and are unable to source certain fuel.

Diesel supply appears to be the worst affected due to high demand, particularly in the agriculture sector.

Winde said the Provincial Disaster Management Centre (PDMC) is monitoring the situation, along with the Fuel Industry Association of South Africa (FIASA) and other key stakeholders.

“This week FIASA reassured the provincial government that there is currently sufficient fuel available nationally to meet demand. Therefore, any end user fuel shortages are very likely the result of market manipulation.”

A food shocker is in the pipeline as diesel goes up.
Image: Pezels

When the South African Reserve Bank models inflation risks, it starts with oil prices and the rand.

But for South African households, the real impact is far more immediate – and far more tangible – at the supermarket till.

Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the central bank had modelled two scenarios tied to sustained higher oil prices. In the first, oil averages close to $100 a barrel, and the rand weakens by around 5%, pushing inflation above 4% and requiring an additional interest rate increase this year.

In a more severe scenario, where oil remains above $100 for over a year, and the rand weakens by about 10%, inflation exceeds 5%, and several rate hikes would be required before it returns to target by 2028.

In both cases, growth is weaker initially before there is some catch-up later, Kganyago said. That is the macroeconomic framing. The reality for households sits much closer to home – and it runs through diesel.

The shock

A potential increase of around R11 per litre in diesel from 1 April represents a structural cost shock, not a marginal adjustment.

• Fuel is embedded across the entire food system:
• production through tractors and irrigation
• processing through energy-intensive operations
• logistics through long-distance transport
• retail through backup power and distribution

South Africa’s supply chain is heavily road-based, with roughly 80% of goods transported by truck. That system is overwhelmingly diesel-powered, with millions of commercial vehicles moving goods across the country daily.

Transport alone can account for up to 10% to 15% of the final price of food, depending on distance and product type.

A jump from roughly R25/litre to R36/litre implies a 44% increase in diesel costs.

Even partial pass-through has a measurable impact. Some crude mathematics based just on headline inflation expectations across this piece, with the anticipated fuel price hike, shows that:

• transport channel alone – about 4.4% upward pressure on food prices
• broader system effects – realistically 6% to 10% food inflation

That is before factoring in a weaker rand, which raises the cost of imported inputs like fertiliser and fuel itself.

Motorists report limits at Cape Town pumps despite assurances of no national fuel shortage.
Image: Picture: Karen Sandison/Independent Newspapers

A Durbanville woman’s attempt to fill her tank is fuelling concern across Cape Town, after she says she was told she could only buy 35 litres of petrol, despite government assurances that there is no national fuel shortage.

Her experience comes as Western Cape Premier Alan Winde has warned of possible fuel hoarding and called for urgent national intervention.

“This is unethical. I implore suppliers to continue providing fuel for their clients. Withholding supply places the economy and livelihoods at great risk,” Winde said.

Faranaaz Brown said she was left confused when a petrol attendant informed her of the limit, allegedly imposed by the station owner.

“I felt very sorry for the petrol attendant who was very apologetic, so I didn’t even bother to get upset with him for just doing his job,” she said in a video that has since gained traction online.

Brown said she initially thought she had missed a major development, prompting her to phone her husband, who suggested the restriction could be linked to anticipated fuel price increases and possible stock withholding.

“I just thought this is absolutely wild,” she said, adding that she then visited other petrol stations in the Northern Suburbs to test whether the restriction was more widespread.

What began as a single encounter quickly escalated online.

Brown said her initial post has since drawn more than 450 comments, with users from across Cape Town and other parts of the country claiming they had experienced similar limits at petrol stations.

“I know this is a hot-button topic right now… People are stressed and emotions are high. However, I do feel that there are certain key players here that are making it untenable,” she said.

The concerns come as global oil markets react to tensions in the Middle East, fuelling fears of price increases rather than immediate supply shortages.

Winde had earlier, sought to reassure residents that there was sufficient fuel available in the province, even as concerns began to grow.

“We understand the growing concern around fuel availability… Let me reassure you: there is currently enough fuel in the Western Cape,” he said at the time.

He added that the provincial government was investigating reported disruptions, engaging with the fuel industry and monitoring the impact on key sectors such as agriculture and transport, with the matter escalated to disaster management structures.

On Sunday, the Premier has reiterated that provinces do not have authority over fuel supply regulation, placing responsibility on national government.

At the same time, Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe has sought to reassure the public, stating that South Africa’s fuel supply remains stable despite heightened geopolitical tensions.

“Despite the heightened geopolitical risk… the Republic’s current petroleum supply security arrangement remains robust,” Mantashe said in Parliament, adding that imports were secured through mid-April.

The assurances stand in contrast to reports of limits at some filling stations.

There has been no official announcement of fuel rationing in South Africa.

The conflicting messages have left residents uncertain, with some reporting they have had to drive between multiple stations in search of fuel or encountered limits on how much they can buy.

Some motorists in the Cape Town CBD said the situation was fuelling concern about potential shortages in the days ahead.

“Even if there isn’t a shortage now, it feels like one is coming. People are already limiting how much they fill, and that just creates more panic. I’m worried we’re going to see empty pumps next week,” one motorist said.

“The problem is uncertainty. You hear there’s enough fuel, but then you see limits or queues. It makes you think something bigger is coming, especially with the price increase,” another added.

While there is no official confirmation of widespread rationing, authorities have warned that certain practices could be unlawful.

The Competition Commission South Africa has cautioned that price gouging is illegal, including increasing prices ahead of official fuel hikes or charging excessively above cost increases.

Separately, Mantashe has indicated that withholding fuel supply to manipulate prices would be illegal and subject to enforcement.

Industry body the Fuel Industry Association of South Africa has told the Western Cape government that there is currently sufficient fuel available nationally, suggesting that any shortages at pump level are not due to a national supply shortage.

Diesel supply appears to be under the most pressure, driven by high demand, particularly in the agriculture sector. The Western Cape’s agriculture industry, heavily reliant on diesel, remains particularly exposed to any disruption.

For many residents, however, the issue is no longer about global oil routes or refinery capacity, but whether they can fill up at their local petrol station.

Brown has urged motorists to report any suspected irregularities, arguing that ignoring the issue could allow it to spread.

“The practice itself is wrong, unethical and illegal. If we just ignore it, it makes us part of the problem and it affects all of us,” she said.

Residents can report fuel shortages to the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, while complaints about pricing conduct can be submitted to the Competition Commission.

As fuel price increases loom and anxiety grows, some motorists believe the real shortage may not be supply, but trust in the system meant to regulate it.

Source: https://iol.co.za/capeargus/news/2026-03-30-35-litres-only-cape-town-motorists-face-fuel-restrictions-amid-uncertainty/

Energy-intensive sectors such as airlines, chemicals and manufacturing are particularly vulnerable, as rising fuel costs squeeze margins and reduce demand.
Image: Atta Kenare / AFP

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East, centred on Iran, could tip the global economy into a rare and synchronised recession, while already triggering fuel supply concerns in South Africa.

According to new modelling by Oxford Economics released on Friday, the world economy faces a sharp slowdown if disruptions to energy flows persist, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil trade.

“Under our prolonged war scenario, global inflation would rise to 7.7%, close to the 2022 peak,” said Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics.

“The magnitude of this price spike triggers large non-linearities that magnify the economic impact, resulting in a rare contraction in global activity in mid-2026.”

The scenario assumes oil prices surge above $150 per barrel for several months, with Brent crude peaking near $190. This would not only fuel inflation but also disrupt supply chains, weaken financial markets and reduce global demand.

As a result, global GDP growth is projected to slow to just 1.4% in 2026, well below recent averages, before only modestly recovering to 2.1% in 2027. Major economies, including the United States and Europe, are expected to fall into recession, while China’s growth could drop to 3.4%.

The shock is being transmitted primarily through energy markets.

Moody’s analysis on Friday showed that prolonged disruption in the Middle East would keep oil and gas prices elevated, strain supply chains, and tighten financial conditions globally.

Energy-intensive sectors such as airlines, chemicals and manufacturing are particularly vulnerable, as rising fuel costs squeeze margins and reduce demand. At the same time, higher transport and logistics costs are feeding into food prices, compounding inflationary pressures worldwide.

For South Africa, the global turmoil is already having tangible effects.

Western Cape Premier Alan Winde on Sunday warned of emerging fuel supply disruptions, raising concerns about hoarding and market manipulation.