Unemployed job seekers line a street waiting for casual employment. File photo (REUTERS/Nic Bothma)
A busy local data calendar this week will ground South Africa’s economic ambitions in reality after heady reform talks buoyed sentiment following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address on Thursday night.
The president’s speech reiterated that job creation remains a priority for government, one which the state’s Operation Vulindlela aims to tackle by removing structural barriers to investment, such as power cuts, data costs and logistics bottlenecks.
On Tuesday, Stats SA will release the results of its quarterly labour force survey for the last three months of 2025, revealing the movement of the official unemployment rate over the quarter.
Structural unemployment continues to plague South Africa’s economy, with about a third of the country unable to find jobs.
The official rate was 31.9% in Q3 — five times higher than the average of South Africa’s G20 peers. While the Q4 reading is unlikely to be materially different, improving business sentiment offers some cause for optimism.
“While labour market conditions remain structurally weak, some economic growth momentum and an uptick in business confidence in Q4 could have helped with job growth,” said Bureau of Economic Research (BER) chief economist Lisette Ijssel de Schepper.
Investec economist Lara Hodes said she expects unemployment to have remained largely unchanged, potentially easing marginally to 31.7%.
Later in the week, Stats SA’s retail sales figures for the final month of 2025 will offer fresh insights into consumer spending and the demand side of the economy.
The BER’s latest retail survey pointed to increased confidence in the fourth quarter, with the metric climbing to 43% from 32% in Q3. The improvement was attributed to “more favourable trading conditions, buoyed by improved sales volumes and profitability in the sector”.
“Retail sales have been on a strong run and are set to cap off a solid year, reinforcing the view that household demand remained resilient despite still-tight financial conditions,” said Ijssel de Schepper.
According to Hodes, sales in the sector are expected to have climbed by about 3.2% year-on-year in December after a 3.5% uptick in the previous month.
On Wednesday, Stats SA will release its first consumer price index (CPI) for 2026, with January’s reading expected to have eased slightly on an annual basis thanks to a drop in fuel and food prices.
After contributing positively to inflation through Q4, fuel prices flipped back into deflationary territory in January, with the petrol price down 66c/l.
International food prices also fell by 2.1% month-on-month in January, with further downward pressure on domestic prices coming from a bumper maize harvest.
From 3.6% in December, Hodes forecast CPI at 3.5% year-on-year in January, while Ijssel de Schepper predicted a 3.4% rate.
Last, Stats SA will also release motor trade sales for December, providing an additional read on “big ticket” consumer spending at the end of 2025.
“These releases will help further refine our high-frequency GDP tracker and firm up views on the growth momentum heading into 2026,” said Ijssel de Schepper. – Business Day
Source: https://www.dailydispatch.co.za/business/2026-02-17-fresh-data-offers-post-sona-reality-check/